Macro Events & News
The market endured another challenging week as the trade war continued to escalate. China responded with retaliatory tariffs on approximately $22 billion worth of U.S. goods, adding further strain to global trade relations. President Trump reaffirmed that the previously announced reciprocal tariffs will take effect on April 2, while also introducing a steep 200% tariff on alcohol-related imports in retaliation for Europe’s reciprocal tariffs on U.S.-made whiskeys. However, there was a slight softening in tone regarding the additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, which provided a small silver lining.
Despite the ongoing trade tensions, the market found some relief with a strong bounce on Friday, though it remains to be seen whether this was a temporary reprieve from weeks of selling pressure. Inflation data released earlier in the week showed some moderation, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) coming in slightly below expectations, which may have contributed to the recovery. However, overall sentiment remains cautious as investors navigate the uncertainty surrounding trade policy and the increasingly erratic economic landscape in U.S. markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained at 4.3%, while the VIX retreated to 21.77 but remains elevated.
All the major indexes ended significantly lower for the week: the Dow down 3%, the S&P 500 down 2.2%, and the Nasdaq down 2.4%.
Watchlist News
1% ▲
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) displayed resilience in an otherwise challenging week for the markets, managing to close slightly above its prior week’s finish. This strength came despite ongoing tariff concerns and a downward price target adjustment from Mizuho to $120. Additionally, AMD announced the launch of its Zen 5-based EPYC Embedded chip, highlighting continued innovation in its product lineup.
august bear notes
AMD’s resilience this week is an encouraging sign for a stock that has been largely dismissed in recent months. This could indicate a potential near-term bottom, not just for AMD but for the broader semiconductor sector, especially as NVIDIA also showed strength despite limited news. The stock’s ability to withstand downward price target revisions and hold above the 325-day moving average further supports this view. However, momentum has yet to turn upward, so an immediate breakout is unlikely. For long-term investors, this may present a solid accumulation opportunity.
6% ▼
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) extended its decline following its earlier earnings disappointment, showing little reaction to upward price target adjustments from Argus, Evercore ISI, and Barclays. Despite the positive analyst sentiment, the stock continued to slide, nearing the $900 level.
august bear notes
As noted, Costco may continue its slide toward the $900 level as lingering negative sentiment from its earnings disappointment weighs on the stock. This level does present strong support from both a technical and psychological standpoint. However, the ongoing tariff war—escalating almost daily—poses a risk of breaking that support. There is some hope that the Trump administration could soften its stance, as feedback has been overwhelmingly negative and other nations have not yielded to its bullying trade tactics.
1% ▼
Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) had a volatile week, closing with a slight loss despite a series of notable developments. Ongoing concerns over tariff policies and their potential to drive a recession continued to weigh on sentiment. However, there were also positive catalysts, including reports that Meta Platforms plans to scale up its custom silicon production through TSMC. Additionally, speculation emerged about a proposed joint venture between TSMC, NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom to take over Intel’s struggling foundry business, adding another layer of intrigue to the stock’s outlook.
august bear notes
TSMC navigated a volatile week but maintained solid footing around the key $170 support level. The potential joint venture to manage Intel’s foundry business is particularly intriguing—not just as a revenue and cost-control opportunity but also as a strategic move that could curry favor with the Trump administration. It is important to note TSMC’s close ties to the Taiwan government, substantial decisions are not made without their input. With strong technical support at these levels, accumulation could be a viable strategy, and once trade policy uncertainties subside, TSMC may be well-positioned for a strong run.
7% ▼
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) extended its post-earnings decline, showing little sign of stabilization. The appointment of a new COO did little to shift sentiment, while MoffettNathanson’s downward price target adjustment added to the pressure. However, Needham and Citizens Capital reiterated their targets at $145 and $115, respectively, offering some level of support.
august bear notes
The Trade Desk has plummeted through key technical support levels, shedding over 50% of its market cap in just over a month—an astonishing decline for a company without a major fundamental shift. While recession fears loom, the severity of the drop suggests a broader loss of investor confidence. The earnings misses were concerning, but what made matters worse was management’s vague response, failing to clarify what went wrong and how they intend to address it. Given the momentum, further downside is possible, and the stock risks becoming a toxic name. That said, it operates in a high-growth space, and at current levels, it may present a compelling bargain for long-term investors willing to stomach the volatility.
