The past few weeks have been brutal for markets, driven largely by the escalating trade war initiated by President Trump. Reciprocal tariffs have now been announced against nearly every major U.S. trading partner. Last week alone, U.S. equity markets experienced their steepest weekly decline since March 2020, shedding over $3 trillion in market value. Unfortunately, relief is unlikely in the near term, as all sides appear entrenched. China responded swiftly with a sweeping 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and appears prepared for a prolonged standoff. Meanwhile, other impacted nations are beginning to align against the U.S., though any coordinated relief remains uncertain in the absence of a clear leader.
While a few key economic reports are on the calendar this week, they will likely be overshadowed by ongoing trade war developments. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. These inflation metrics are not expected to capture the impact of the recent tariffs so softer numbers would be disregarded. However, if the data comes in hotter than expected, it could stoke fears of stagflation and significantly increase concerns about a looming U.S. recession.
Earnings season officially kicks off Friday with reports from major banks, but investor focus remains squarely on the trade war’s breadth and depth—an environment where there are no winners. The key question is no longer if there will be pain, but how much and for how long.
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Friday
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Earnings: JPM BLK MS WFC
Tracking This Week
Given the continued escalation of the trade war, there are no specific names being tracked for entries this week. With most stocks having broken through key technical support levels, the setup feels like a complete reset. The fallout is still unfolding, making it difficult to identify reliable entry points. That said, S Tier names and the top names within A Tier will remain on close watch for signs of stabilization or relative strength as the broader market attempts to find footing.
