Macro Events & News
The week began on a negative note as uncertainty around the trade war continued to weigh on the markets. Incendiary comments from President Trump, particularly regarding the potential firing of Fed Chair Powell, triggered widespread panic due to concerns over executive overreach. However, Trump appeared to receive counsel, later walking back his comments and claiming he never intended to remove Powell—despite having called him a “major loser” on social media.
Markets were able to recover as the week progressed, helped by a series of positive corporate earnings reports that pointed to a resilient economy. While few companies outside the direct impact of tariffs made changes to their guidance, many noted that while customer behavior remains steady for now, the situation could deteriorate if conditions worsen. Attention will turn next week to companies directly exposed to tariffs, starting with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
The 10-year Treasury yield receded to 4.26%, while the VIX retreated to 24.84.
All the major indexes ended significantly higher for the week: the Dow up 2.5%, the S&P 500 up 4.6%, and the Nasdaq leading with a 6.7% gain.
Watchlist News
1% ▼
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) traded mostly sideways last week, ending slightly lower with a close at $977. There were no significant news events or announcements during the period.
august bear notes
Costco continued to trade sideways for another week. There was a breakout attempt late last week, but momentum faded. Technicals still suggest a breakout higher is likely, but movement appears tied to broader macroeconomic developments—specifically tariffs, which directly impact Costco’s business. However, Costco is better positioned than most retailers due to its strong negotiating power, diversified sourcing options, and membership-based model. Expect a move higher if negative pressure from the trade war eases as deals start to roll in.
13% ▲
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) maintained positive momentum following its earnings report, closing higher each day last week. The stock ended at a new all-time high of $1,100, showing resilience despite ongoing concerns around trade tensions.
august bear notes
As anticipated, Netflix shares continued to climb as investors sought out companies relatively insulated from immediate fallout of the global trade war. Last week’s results highlighted Netflix’s pricing power, and the growth potential in new segments like creator content and gaming added further enthusiasm. With shares trading at all-time highs, it’s difficult to predict the next ceiling, but any positive macro developments could allow the stock to extend its gains — or at minimum, establish a new floor at these elevated levels.
18% ▲
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported one of its weakest quarters in recent history, with net income declining 71% and vehicle sales declining 13% YoY. During the earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced he would dedicate more time to Tesla and reaffirmed plans for future revenue streams, including the robotaxi service and Optimus robots. Later in the week, the Department of Transportation announced it would adopt a more relaxed stance toward autonomous vehicle testing.
august bear notes
Tesla is increasingly turning into a meme stock. The core business is in clear decline, with brand deterioration fueled by CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement and polarizing remarks on his social platform, as reflected in declining sales despite global EV market growth. His return to a more active role at Tesla is unlikely to reverse this trend. While the energy business remains a bright spot, other potential upside rests on ventures that have largely been hype over substance for years. Yet the stock continued to climb inexplicably after earnings. Musk’s growing influence within the current administration cannot be ignored, particularly with the conveniently timed move by the Department of Transportation to relax requirements for autonomous vehicle testing just as Tesla ramps up its efforts. That is not a dependable or respectable foundation. Trade it, don’t own it.
3% ▲
Uber Technologies (NASDAQ:UBER) bounced around early in the week following news that the FTC had filed a lawsuit against the company over deceptive billing and cancellation practices related to Uber One. Momentum shifted midweek after strong Waymo ride-hailing numbers were highlighted in Alphabet’s earnings report, with Uber shares briefly trading above $80 before settling back.
august bear notes
Uber showed resilience early in the week despite news of a new FTC lawsuit, which appears to be baseless. There are rumors that Tesla CEO Elon Musk may have influenced the action as his company prepares to compete with Uber. Waymo’s reported data highlighted the impact of Uber’s network, showing a 20% improvement in rider numbers in Austin compared to San Francisco. This positions Uber well in the autonomous space, as they are not tied to any single operator in an evolving market without clear leadership. Uber has also demonstrated stability throughout the ongoing trade war and could benefit from any de-escalation or trade agreements as they head into earnings on May 7.
