Macro Events & News
Markets opened the week on solid footing, buoyed by encouraging headlines from U.S.–China trade talks in London. While the details were vague—and at times contradictory—President Trump claiming a deal was done, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that the sides merely reaffirmed the original framework. Still, it appears enough progress was made for the administration to consider extending the 90-day tariff pause, which markets interpreted as a positive, helping major indexes push higher in the early part of the week.
Macro data also supported the positive sentiment. May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations, with core CPI at 2.8% versus the expected 2.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) followed with a softer-than-forecast 0.1% print, suggesting that inflationary pressure from tariffs may be exaggerated. However, it’s worth noting that much of the impact may still be buffered by companies working through pre-tariff inventory stockpiles.
By Friday, however, markets reversed course. News broke that Israel had launched preemptive strikes on Iranian targets to slow nuclear developments, prompting a retaliatory response from Iran. The escalation in Middle East tensions sent oil and gold prices sharply higher and rattled broader markets. Domestically, unrest around ICE enforcement actions and the controversial decision by the Trump administration to deploy federal military forces—without local approval—further fueled a sense of political and social instability, adding to risk-off sentiment to close out the week.
The 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.4% on better than expected economic indicators and a fairly robust auction on Wednesday. The VIX was relatively tame until Friday, jumping 16% to close at 20.82.
All the major indexes closed out this week lower: the Dow down 1.5%, the S&P 500 down <1%, and the Nasdaq down <1%.
Watchlist News
6% ▼
Saleforce Inc (NASDAQ:CRM) shares trended lower for most of the week, briefly bouncing on Thursday before resuming their slide following the spike in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. There was no company-specific news driving the move, aside from Oppenheimer reiterating its $370 price target—hardly a catalyst in either direction.
august bear notes
After a strong rebound the previous week in the aftermath of a mixed earnings report, sentiment around Salesforce looked to be stabilizing. However, this week’s early weakness suggests that selling pressure hadn’t fully cleared. While the long-term story remains intact, questions around leadership are starting to grow louder. CEO Marc Benioff’s tone on the last earnings call raised eyebrows, and the decision to have Robin Washington serve as both COO and CFO is unusual and potentially overextended. There’s still upside potential here, but renewed confidence—both in the stock and the executive team—may take time to rebuild.
1% ▲
NVIDIA Inc (NASDAQ:NVDA) had a volatile week, surging early to touch $145 on optimism around U.S.–China trade talks and speculation that export controls might be eased. But when it became clear that export restrictions were not part of the developing agreement, those gains quickly evaporated. CEO Jensen Huang’s comments on quantum computing and NVIDIA’s expanding role in AI infrastructure briefly reignited interest, but the late-week sell-off tied to the Middle East escalation capped any real momentum.
august bear notes
NVIDIA looks poised for a breakout, but geopolitical uncertainty continues to suppress broader risk appetite. While it was disappointing that export controls weren’t lifted and that China revenue will no longer be disclosed, the company’s fundamental position remains rock solid. Demand is robust, pricing power is intact, and Huang continues to roll out new AI initiatives globally. The launch of CUDA-Q to support quantum computing adds yet another layer of innovation. AMD did show progress during its Advancing AI 2025 event, but NVIDIA remains the undisputed leader in AI hardware. With the stock consolidating and sentiment still broadly bullish, this still appears to be in an accumulation state.
3% ▲
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) surged last week after reporting a 40% year-over-year revenue increase for May, fueling expectations for a blockbuster Q2. Shares hit a high of $217 before pulling back slightly, and unlike many tech names, it held up relatively well despite the market-wide selloff sparked by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
august bear notes
Not surprising that TSM rallied on strong monthly revenue and growing optimism around its upcoming July earnings, where many now expect record results and possibly a guidance raise. The company is pushing forward on its 2nm roadmap, and customer demand—especially from NVIDIA and AMD—remains strong. While geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could pressure the broader market, TSM remains a high-conviction name. Any weakness tied to macro events rather than fundamentals could present a compelling entry point for long-term investors.
3% ▼
Workday Inc (NASDAQ:WDAY) attempted to regain momentum early in the week, pushing above $256 on both Tuesday and Wednesday before giving up gains and retracing back to its starting point. Like most sectors outside of energy, the stock was hit in after-hours trading on Thursday and Friday following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
august bear notes
Workday had been showing signs of stabilization following a weaker-than-expected Q1 earnings report that triggered a selloff. The past couple of weeks saw a gradual recovery, with shares consolidating in a tight range—suggesting the worst of the post-earnings reaction may be behind it. However, renewed geopolitical tensions have reintroduced volatility and uncertainty, disrupting what looked like a near-term bottoming process. While still trading at an attractive level, broader risk-off sentiment tied to global instability may keep a lid on upside in the near term.
