Macro Events & News
Markets ended slightly lower after a choppy week marked by renewed trade tensions and shifting macro expectations. President Trump announced a new round of tariff threats via formal letters to countries including South Korea, Japan, Canada, Thailand, Brazil, and Malaysia, with measures set to take effect August 1. Details were thin, but a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports stood out—widely seen as politically motivated, possibly in response to Brazil’s legal actions against former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally. A separate 50% tariff on imported copper also caught markets off guard.
Despite the aggressive headlines, market reaction was relatively restrained. Investors appear conditioned by the familiar “TACO” pattern—“Trump Always Chickens Out”—where bold trade threats are often followed by delays or walk-backs. While the tariff news contributed to late-week weakness, it didn’t trigger broad-based selling. NVIDIA’s brief climb past a $4 trillion valuation highlighted continued strength in AI-driven names even amid the uncertainty.
Midweek, FOMC meeting minutes provided a temporary boost to bonds, pushing yields lower on signals that rate cuts may still be on the table later this year. However, the lack of consensus among Fed officials, combined with Friday’s tariff headlines, reversed much of that move, with yields retracing and pressure returning to rate-sensitive growth sectors.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.41% on renewed escalations in trade tariffs. The VIX was lower for the week, closing at 16.4.
All the major indexes ended moderately lower for the week: the Dow down 1%, the S&P 500 down < 1%, and the Nasdaq was down < 1%.
Watchlist News
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Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) traded in a tight range and ended the week slightly lower. The retirement announcement of COO Jeff Williams had little impact on the stock, but midweek weakness appeared tied to growing investor concerns over Apple’s AI positioning—or perceived lack thereof. These concerns weighed on sentiment as peers continue to highlight aggressive AI roadmaps.
august bear notes
Apple was unable to regain upward momentum this week but also did not give back too much of its gains from last week. Investor enthusiasm appears muted as the company has yet to articulate a compelling AI strategy. A potential partnership or acquisition in the space could act as a catalyst, but for now, the stock lacks a near-term narrative to drive fresh inflows.
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Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) showed early strength, briefly touching $276 on Tuesday before reversing and trending lower through the rest of the week. The stock continued to struggle in the aftermath of its underwhelming earnings report. BMO Capital lowered its price target to $335, while JMP Securities reiterated a bullish $430 target.
august bear notes
It appears Salesforce remains under pressure and sentiment is still cautious post-earnings. While the stock appears to be searching for a bottom near its post-report lows, it may remain toxic in the short term. That said, most analyst targets remain above the current price, and the company’s core competitive advantages—particularly in enterprise software and cloud CRM—are still recognized.
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Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) sold off to start the week, with weakness on Monday and Tuesday despite no major headlines. Some attributed the decline to lingering concerns about generative AI’s long-term impact on its core search business. However, a flurry of positive price target revisions from equity analysts helped reverse the trend, and the stock finished the week marginally higher.
august bear notes
Alphabet’s ability to close green in a down market highlights its relative strength. The stock continues a slow, steady grind higher, supported by favorable valuation metrics compared to other Mag 7 names—particularly its growth profile relative to its P/E and PEG ratios. That story is gaining traction and could attract incremental buying. Still, concerns about long-term disruption are valid, and Alphabet’s inconsistent track record in capitalizing on big shifts warrants a degree of caution.
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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) held up relatively well this week, ending less than 1% lower despite a sharp 7% pre-market drop on Monday after CEO Elon Musk announced the creation of a new political party after market close on Friday. Speculative reports around a potential robotaxi expansion to more cities circulated but lacked confirmation. Goldman Sachs lowered its price target, though the market reaction was limited.
august bear notes
Tesla remains driven more by sentiment and Musk-related headlines than by fundamentals. While the stock is trading far above where its core business performance would suggest, it continues to defy gravity. Sales are stagnating, major future revenue drivers like robotaxis remain unproven, and political support in the U.S. appears to be fading—yet investor appetite persists. A reversion to fundamental valuation may be inevitable, but timing that turn is difficult given the stock’s cult-like following.
