Macro Events & News
Not a great week for the markets as President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico set to take effect in March, with China facing incremental 10% tariffs. Markets remain under pressure, with indications that retaliatory measures will follow—erasing all post-election gains for mega-cap tech. On the economic front, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report met expectations, easing immediate inflation concerns. However, muted consumption data, combined with weakening consumer sentiment and other indicators, raises the risk of an economic slowdown.
The 10-Year Treasury yield ended lower at 4.25%. The VIX remains elevated at 19.63 with tariff and economic concerns unresolved.
Most of the major indexes ended lower for the week: the Dow up <1%, the S&P 500 down 1%, and the Nasdaq down 3.5%.
Watchlist News
1% ▼
Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE) traded largely in line with the broader market, showing resilience early in the week before declining on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a modest rebound on Friday. With no major company-specific news, price action seemed to be driven by broader market sentiment and macroeconomic concerns.
august bear notes
Adobe showed resilience in a challenging week, outperforming many tech peers as the Nasdaq dropped 3.5%. With earnings season winding down, broader market fatigue may be weighing on overall sentiment. However, Adobe’s stability amid the selloff should provide reassurance to shareholders. While concerns and headwinds remain, its dominant market position and current valuation suggest upside potential once sentiment improves.
6% ▼
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) delivered strong FY25 Q4 earnings with guidance exceeding expectations. The only blemish was gross margins dipping to the low 70s. The stock initially dropped 8% but recovered slightly by Friday’s close.
august bear notes
The selloff in NVIDIA is surprising and appears to be driven more by heavy options market activity than fundamentals. Despite beating expectations and raising guidance—typically a catalyst for strength—the stock initially dropped. While concerns around gross margins and weak Gaming revenue are valid, they don’t justify an 8% decline, as the core growth engine, Data Center, remains strong. Expecting a sharp rebound next week, with export controls being the only potential headwind.
1% ▼
Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) followed the market, under pressure the beginning of the week and recovered slightly on Friday. No major company-specific news drove the decline, suggesting broader market sentiment and sector-wide weakness were the primary factors.
august bear notes
Charles Schwab may have found a near-term bottom, holding support around the $78 level throughout the week. However, macro conditions and broader market sentiment will heavily dictate its next move. With trade tensions escalating and economic indicators signaling a more challenging growth outlook, the risk of further downside remains in play.
9% ▼
Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) broke below the $200 support level early in the week, sliding sharply to the $180 range in sympathy with its largest customer, NVIDIA who reported earnings on Wednesday. The stock also faced additional pressure from geopolitical concerns, as Taiwan’s Economic Minister indicated that joint ventures may be subject to further review.
august bear notes
The trading action in both NVIDIA and TSMC was unexpected, as the $200 support level initially appeared solid. However, the subsequent drop to the next support level makes the stock even more attractive. It seems TSMC was trading in sympathy with NVIDIA, which also saw a puzzling decline despite beating expectations and providing improved guidance. Both companies are dominant players in the space and are well-positioned for long-term success. The only near-term concern is the ongoing geopolitical risks, which could continue to weigh on performance.
