The trade war remains a dominant force driving market sentiment, with its near-daily shifts and escalations creating ongoing uncertainty. This instability clouds the long-term economic outlook, adding to concerns about the potential for a significant recession. Despite the recent bounce in Chinese ADRs, China’s economic data continues to show troubling weakness, underscoring the possibility of a global slowdown.
With only a handful of notable earnings reports this week, markets will be primarily guided by developments in trade policy. The FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday is unlikely to introduce major surprises, as no changes are expected. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision commentary could introduce short-term volatility, though his stance is expected to remain consistent—emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid resilient economic indicators.
Amidst the turmoil, many high-quality stocks have been beaten down, now sitting near 52-week lows or key technical support levels. Last Friday’s rebound offers some hope that the market has priced in the initial round of trade war tariffs. If further escalations pause, these names could see meaningful recoveries.
Monday
Retail Sales
Tuesday
Wednesday
FOMC interest-rate decision
Thursday
Earnings: ACN MU
Friday
Earnings: NIO
Tracking This Week
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Amazon Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) may have found a near-term bottom, marking its first positive week in a while. The bounce is notable as it aligns with key moving averages on both daily and weekly charts. However, the ongoing trade war remains a wildcard—any further tariff escalations could disrupt this recovery. That said, the likelihood of clarity, rollback, or a pause in new tariffs appears higher at this stage, providing optimism for the stock.
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) has faced significant selling pressure in recent weeks, not due to fundamental weakness but rather a mix of disappointing cloud growth metrics, trade war concerns, and broad profit-taking amid economic uncertainty. Last week’s bounce off the $375 support level is encouraging, but sustaining this recovery depends on stability in trade policy and broader market sentiment.
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