The Week Ahead: Week of 4/14-4/18

The optimism following Friday’s announcement that certain sectors—semiconductors included—would be exempt from reciprocal tariffs was short-lived. By Sunday night, the administration backtracked, framing the move as a mere reclassification. The narrative surrounding trade policy continues to shift on a near-daily basis, often depending on the speaker. This lack of consistency has created a chaotic backdrop for both companies and investors.

In its current state, the U.S. market is not investable. The policy whiplash hampers corporate decision-making and injects unnecessary, damaging volatility across asset classes. Capital continues to exit U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, reflecting growing investor unease.

With both the U.S. and China doubling down after the latest round of tariffs, demand destruction is underway, and neither side appears ready to offer a viable exit strategy. A resolution in the near term appears unlikely. China may be better equipped to endure prolonged economic strain due to its centralized control and a population familiar with austerity. In contrast, American consumers—unaccustomed to sustained disruption—may eventually exert pressure on policymakers to end the trade war.

Retail Sales data, due Wednesday, is unlikely to shift sentiment. The economic impact of tariffs will take time to materialize in hard data, and any signs of strength may even amplify fears of prolonged inflation or economic stagnation. Earnings season also begins under a cloud of unpredictability; forecasting has become nearly impossible in the current environment.

Expect continued volatility until a clearer path on trade policy emerges. The longer this uncertainty drags on, the more likely it becomes that markets spiral further, with a recession increasingly appearing to be the best-case outcome.

Tracking This Week

In the current environment, traditional tools like trend analysis and technical levels have lost much of their utility. Nearly every stock appears to be “good value” on paper—but that’s based on assumptions, models, and macroeconomic frameworks that have been upended by the Trump administration’s tariff policies and the breakdown of long-standing global alliances.

As earnings season ramps, the most valuable insights will likely come from the commentary on the calls. Listening closely to how management teams and financial institutions are interpreting the rapidly evolving trade situation—and how they’re preparing for potential disruptions—will be key to developing a new strategy.