Macro Events & News
The ongoing trade war and evolving tariff landscape remained the dominant force in U.S. markets, continuing to overshadow earnings season despite a full slate of high-profile reports. Several mega-cap companies, including Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM), Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), Blackstone (NYSE:BX), and American Express (NYSE:AXP), posted solid quarterly results. However, most issued cautious or muted forward guidance, citing geopolitical instability and a lack of clarity in U.S. trade policy as key concerns. ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) also reported better-than-expected results but highlighted weakness in net bookings, likely reflecting sector-wide uncertainty tied to escalating tariffs and newly implemented export restrictions.
Among the more notable single-stock developments, UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) was a major drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, falling 25% after issuing downward guidance. While this weakness was company-specific, it also reinforced broader concerns around earnings stability in the current environment.
On the economic front, March retail sales data surprised to the upside with a 1.4% month-over-month gain. However, the positive reading had little effect on sentiment, which remained tethered to the uncertainty surrounding trade developments. Reports indicated that cumulative tariffs on China-sourced goods have climbed as high as 245%, though the lack of official confirmation and contradictory messaging from government sources have made it difficult to validate. Additionally, the fallout from the trade conflict extended beyond tariffs. China canceled all Boeing orders, restricted access for U.S. films in its domestic market, and halted liquefied natural gas shipments from the U.S. while the U.S. imposed new yet to be defined licensing requirements on semiconductor exports.
The Trump administration’s communication on trade policy continued to sow confusion. On Friday, it was reported that certain sectors—most notably electronics—would be exempt from new tariffs. But by Sunday, officials clarified this as a “reclassification” rather than a true exemption, without offering a detailed explanation. Although the administration has stated that negotiations are ongoing and that deals are forthcoming, no new agreements have been confirmed. Reports from key trade partners including China, Japan, Canada, and the EU offer little indication of material progress.
Markets reflected this uncertainty across asset classes. Gold prices surged again, closing the week near $3,300 per ounce. The U.S. dollar weakened further as capital flows continued to exit risk assets. Overall, market conditions remained volatile and directionless, with sentiment driven largely by geopolitical developments and inconsistent policy signals.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which had spiked as high as 4.50% earlier in the week, pulled back to close at 4.30%, while the VIX finished at 29.65—still elevated, though well below the extreme levels seen in the prior week.
All the major indexes ended lower for the week: the Dow down 2.6%, the S&P 500 down 1.3%, and the Nasdaq down 2.6%.
