The trade war is now in full swing, with all sides imposing heavy tariffs, setting the stage for heightened market volatility. Expect fear-driven swings as speculation over the short- and long-term economic impact dominates sentiment.
Earnings season continues with major reports from Amazon, Google, Palantir, AMD, Uber, Disney, and ARM, but inflation concerns tied to tariffs are likely to overshadow corporate results. Upside will be limited, while downside risk will be significant.
Key economic data, particularly PMI readings, could further fuel inflation fears if they come in hotter than expected. Even softer readings may be dismissed as backward-looking, with tariffs expected to drive near-term price increases as businesses pass rising costs and supply chain disruptions onto consumers.
This week again may be a good week to consider VIX or strategies that protect against the downside.
Monday
Manufacturing PMI
Earnings: PLTR
Tuesday
JOLTS job openings
Earnings: PYPL GOOG AMD SNAP
Wednesday
Services PMI, ADP employment
Earnings: UBER DIS QCOM ARM
Thursday
Earnings: BMY AMZN NET
Friday
Employment report
Tracking This Week
Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) briefly approached its all-time high of $369 last Tuesday before pulling back to close at $341. Momentum remains intact, but like many stocks, it may trade within a range until tariff and inflation concerns ease. That said, a solid base and support appears to exist.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) held up well against last week’s AI and tariff-driven volatility, buoyed by its strong earnings report the week prior. The stock should remain insulated from any direct impact of new trade policies or retaliatory actions, providing relative stability. Given this, it may trade within a tight range, making range-bound strategies worth considering.
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) delivered a strong earnings report but followed its usual post-earnings pattern—selling off despite solid results. However, as seen in the past, a rebound could be on the horizon. While the timing is uncertain, it’s worth keeping an eye on for a potential bounce.
Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) is relatively insulated from the tariff fallout, given its U.S. focused business centered on human capital and resource management. However, as a growth stock, it remains vulnerable to inflation concerns and potential rate hikes, which could weigh on sentiment.
