This is an overdue update to the Watchlist, reflecting how the investment landscape has continued to evolve throughout the year. The revisions incorporate changes in the macroeconomic environment, industry fundamentals, and prevailing market narratives, including the Iran conflict, SaaSpocalypse, memory squeeze, and other developments that have materially impacted investment theses. As always, rankings are based on updated assessments of valuation, competitive positioning, financial performance, management execution, and long-term risk versus reward.
Upgrades
Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) got hit by the SaaSpocalypse, but cybersecurity is one of the clearest structural winners as AI adoption grows. AI increases the attack surface, and corporations cannot cut security spend without taking real risk. Palo Alto Networks is deeply entrenched across large enterprises and is building AI agents and automation into its products to strengthen that position. They have years of domain experience, real customer data, and broad platform reach, which should give them a stronger moat than new AI lab security startups that lack that embedded footprint or track record.
Raised to S Tier.
Micron Technologies (NASDAQ:MU) is benefiting from surging demand for advanced memory driven by AI workloads and increasingly data-intensive applications. As the only U.S.-based manufacturer of leading-edge memory at scale, the company has also benefited from CHIPS Act funding and domestic manufacturing incentives. While memory remains a cyclical commodity business and elevated margins will eventually attract new supply, new fabrication facilities take years to build and ramp. That delayed supply response should allow Micron to continue benefiting from the current AI-driven demand cycle before competitive capacity meaningfully increases.
Raised to A Tier.
Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) is another beneficiary of U.S. industrial policy, with billions in CHIPS Act funding, loans, and tax credits supporting new fabrication facilities and secure manufacturing initiatives. The company is working to transform itself from a struggling CPU manufacturer into a leading global foundry, backed by government support and a clearer long-term strategy. The investment case ultimately hinges on execution. Intel must deliver on its manufacturing roadmap while convincing external customers to trust a foundry that also competes with them in chip design.
Raised to C Tier.
ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) was also swept up in the broader SaaSpocalypse sell-off, treating it as just another generic SaaS vendor overlooks its deeply entrenched structural moat. Built on a decade of proprietary workflow data, the platform serves as the indispensable digital backbone for major enterprises, including a significant portion of the S&P 500. Rather than relying on superficial wrappers, ServiceNow is embedding native AI agents and automation directly into these existing workflows to deliver measurable efficiency gains, while simultaneously expanding its footprint into high-growth adjacent verticals like cybersecurity.
Initiated in A Tier.
Veeva Systems (NYSE:VEEV) was similarly dragged down by the broader SaaS sell-off, but its core moat is far more defensible. As the specialized digital foundation for life sciences, Veeva hosts critical, highly regulated data across pharma and biotech. A proprietary dataset that general-purpose AI models simply cannot replicate or train on at scale. While Veeva is actively embedding AI into its platform, its true edge remains its deep vertical focus, regulatory compliance expertise, and mission-critical workflows, shielding the business from generic, feature-based competition.
Initiated in A Tier.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) faces several meaningful headwinds, including Apple’s planned transition away from its modem business, continued pressure on global smartphone demand, and elevated component costs. While ongoing memory shortages and pricing spikes may temporarily constrain device production, these supply disruptions are cyclical and are likely to normalize over time. Despite these challenges, Qualcomm has significant opportunities to diversify beyond smartphones through its expanding presence in radio frequency (RF) components, automotive platforms, and edge AI silicon. If management delivers on this strategy, the current uncertainty may present an attractive long-term entry point for investors.
Initiated in A Tier.
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) went through a difficult 2025 with significant negative news flow and regulatory scrutiny, but it remains one of the dominant integrated healthcare companies in the U.S., combining insurance, care delivery, and data analytics. The underlying business has continued to generate solid cash flows and scale advantages. As the company absorbs regulatory changes under the current administration and works through operational and PR problems, the thesis is that its core economics and competitive position reassert themselves and the market shifts focus back to fundamentals rather than headlines.
Initiated in B Tier.
eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) is a cash‑flow‑positive marketplace that has been overshadowed by newer commerce narratives but still commands a defensible niche in recommerce. The recent offer from GameStop and Ryan Cohen at around $125 per share introduces a strategic and arbitrage angle: as long as the bid is live, it can serve as a soft floor for the equity, albeit with complexity given the proposed mix of cash and GameStop stock, which itself is volatile and constantly subject to dilution. Even if the offer is ultimately pulled or fails to obtain approval, eBay’s standalone fundamentals and buyback capacity suggest that the downside from current levels is likely limited rather than existential, though headline-driven volatility is a risk.
Initiated in YOLO Tier.
Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) operates in a nascent, high‑risk industry where hype often runs ahead of profitability, but it has a real operating track record and revenue from launch plus space systems. Founder Peter Beck is famously self‑taught as a rocket engineer, and the company has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to put payloads into orbit and expand into spacecraft components. The strategic bet here is that small payload launch becomes an economically viable nicheand that SpaceX continues to focus on larger payloads and Starlink, leaving room for a dedicated small‑sat launch and services player. New downstream industries built on cheap, frequent small launches could further expand the opportunity set, though execution and capital discipline remain key risks.
Initiated in YOLO Tier.
Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) sits at the center of a complicated M&A saga where Paramount won the bidding war but still faces funding and regulatory hurdles. The transaction structure includes a sizable reverse breakup fee (around $7 billion) if the deal is blocked, and Paramount is exposed to delay penalties that could reach at least $2 billion as approvals stretch into 2027. That creates a scenario where the name could stick around current levels while investors wait for regulatory outcomes. However, this is not a one‑way arbitrage: there are contractual paths for Paramount to walk away without paying the full penalty, and competing bidders like Netflix may not be able or willing to match the same $27.75 per share offer.
Initiated in YOLO Tier.
Downgrades
Accenture (NYSE:ACN) has seen a significant pull back in enterprise tech spend as corporate leaders pause large-scale consulting engagements amid broad AI uncertainty. Rather than accelerating digital transformations, clients may be hoarding cash to figure out where the technology is heading, leaving Accenture exposed as discretionary IT budgets get slashed and long-cycle advisory projects stall.
Downgraded to B Tier.
International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) has struggled with top-line growth as structural declines in its legacy Infrastructure segment, exacerbated by cyclical mainframe drop-offs, drag down performance. While management highlights an expanding enterprise AI pipeline, IBM remains severely disadvantaged compared to cloud hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, which possess superior infrastructure and developer ecosystems. Complemented by stagnating tech consulting spend across the industry, IBM lacks the underlying momentum to convert its AI narrative into sustainable revenue growth.
Downgraded to B Tier.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) growth has meaningfully slowed as subscriber saturation sets in and content production hurdles mount, a problem compounded by rival studios clawing back proprietary IP to fuel their own platforms. Meanwhile, expensive ventures into gaming and live events have failed to generate meaningful engagement or revenue, casting rare doubt on management’s strategic vision and execution capabilities.
Downgraded to B Tier.
PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) has experienced major leadership turnover and erratic strategic shifts under a new CEO unfamiliar with payments have left the company potentially rudderless during a critical period of intense competition. While a recent buyout offer establishes a temporary valuation floor, the near-term setup relies heavily on hopes of a higher bid or a core re-acceleration. If new management can demonstrate operational recovery, there is meaningful upside, but until organic growth stabilizes, it remains a high-risk turnaround bet.
Downgraded to YOLO Tier.
Snap (NYSE:SNAP) current leadership appears increasingly lost, failing to properly monetize its platform or build a sustainable advertising model in a crowded digital landscape. While its young, highly engaged user base remains a valuable asset, the company’s primary upside now hinges almost entirely on its potential as a speculative M&A target rather than a viable standalone business.
Downgraded to YOLO Tier.
The initial thesis on Global Foundries (NASDAQ:GFS) was validated by its run to $90. The stock successfully leveraged its differentiated status as a domestic chip manufacturer to capture both CHIPS Act policy incentives and secular momentum across the semiconductor sector. At the end of the day, GlobalFoundries primarily manufactures lower-margin, legacy-node chips rather than cutting-edge AI silicon. Without exposure to high-performance computing, the stock lacks the structural growth drivers required to sustain a premium valuation over the long haul.
Downgraded to Bench.
